· Analysis updated 05:23 UTC
Carapebus vs Duque de Caxias Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Carapebus and 2.28 for Duque de Caxias, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Duque de Caxias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Duque de Caxias win
71.9% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carapebus home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Duque de Caxias away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Duque de Caxias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 11% / 17% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Carapebus and 2.28 for Duque de Caxias, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.6%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–39.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Carapebus
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrópolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Serrano RJ · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Niteroiense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 3-4 (L)
Duque de Caxias
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Artsul · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Campo Grande · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax Rio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duque de Caxias | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Niteroiense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Macaé | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Duque de Caxias win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.