· Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Čarda Martjanci vs Dobrovce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Čarda Martjanci and 1.46 for Dobrovce, a combined total of 4.61. That distribution gives Čarda Martjanci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Čarda Martjanci win
70.7% probability
Expected goals
3.15 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Čarda Martjanci home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Čarda Martjanci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Čarda Martjanci and 1.46 for Dobrovce, a combined 4.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 73%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.2%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
Čarda Martjanci
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Videm · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rače · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Šmartno · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Korotan Prevalje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Ormoz · 1-3 (L)
Dobrovce
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Ormoz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Rače | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Korotan Prevalje | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Čarda Martjanci win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.