· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Čarda Martjanci vs NK Ormoz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Čarda Martjanci and 1.86 for NK Ormoz, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Čarda Martjanci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Čarda Martjanci win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Čarda Martjanci home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NK Ormoz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Čarda Martjanci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 19% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Čarda Martjanci and 1.86 for NK Ormoz, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
Recent form
Čarda Martjanci
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Videm · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rače · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Šmartno · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Korotan Prevalje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Ormoz · 1-3 (L)
NK Ormoz
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Odranci · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dobrovce · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Šmartno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Ormoz | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Korotan Prevalje | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rače | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Čarda Martjanci win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.