Cardassar vs Alcúdia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Cardassar and 1.27 for Alcúdia, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Cardassar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cardassar win

62.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.39 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cardassar home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcúdia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardassar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Cardassar and 1.27 for Alcúdia, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cardassar win62%

Draw19%

Alcúdia win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–17.8%
3–17.4%
2–07.3%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Cardassar

2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Platges Calvià · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 0-0 (D)

Alcúdia

2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Inter Ibiza · 5-0 (W)
2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mercadal · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-25T16:00:00.000Z · Cardassar 0-1 Alcúdia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2025-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Cardassar 3-1 Alcúdia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2021-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · Cardassar 1-2 Alcúdia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2021-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Cardassar 2-2 Alcúdia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	5	1	0	9	16
2	Manacor	6	5	0	1	9	15
3	Cardassar	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Constància	6	4	1	1	7	13
5	Platges Calvià	6	4	0	2	6	12
6	Santanyí	6	3	3	0	5	12
7	Formentera	6	3	2	1	4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	3	2	1	3	11
9	Llosetense	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Porreres	6	3	0	3	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	2	0	4	-3	6
13	Mercadal	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Andratx	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Migjorn	6	1	0	5	-9	3
16	Arenal	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	0	1	5	-13	1
18	Sineu	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cardassar win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.