Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Car · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Cardassar vs Inter Ibiza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cardassar and 1.73 for Inter Ibiza, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Inter Ibiza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Ibiza win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cardassar home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Ibiza away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Ibiza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Cardassar and 1.73 for Inter Ibiza, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Cardassar
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Platges Calvià · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 0-0 (D)
Inter Ibiza
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Porreres · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Mercadal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Cardassar 1-0 Inter Ibiza (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2025-12-20T13:00:00.000Z · Cardassar 2-0 Inter Ibiza (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Manacor | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Ibiza win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.