· Analysis updated 02:14 UTC
Cardiff City U21 vs Fulham U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Cardiff City U21 and 1.53 for Fulham U21, a combined total of 4.04. That distribution gives Cardiff City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cardiff City U21 win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cardiff City U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardiff City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Cardiff City U21 and 1.53 for Fulham U21, a combined 4.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.6%
Recent form
Cardiff City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough United U21 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 5-2 (W)
Fulham U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Braintree · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United U21 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cardiff City U21 win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.