· Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Cardiff City U21 vs Plymouth U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Cardiff City U21 and 1.00 for Plymouth U21, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Cardiff City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cardiff City U21 win
83.1% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cardiff City U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardiff City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 10% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Cardiff City U21 and 1.00 for Plymouth U21, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 61%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–06.9%
- 4–16.9%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Cardiff City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough United U21 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 5-2 (W)
Plymouth U21
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cardiff City U21 win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.