Cyncoed Campus · Analysis updated 23:52 UTC
Cardiff MET vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Cardiff MET and 1.30 for Ynyshir Albions, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Cardiff MET the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cardiff MET win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cardiff MET home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ynyshir Albions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardiff MET to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Cardiff MET and 1.30 for Ynyshir Albions, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Cardiff MET
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Flint Town United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ammanford AFC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Briton Ferry · 3-0 (W)
Ynyshir Albions
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Treowen Stars · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Trethomas Bluebirds · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Carmarthen Town · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cardiff MET win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.