Cardiff vs Southampton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.43 for Southampton, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cardiff home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Southampton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Cardiff win36%

Draw25%

Southampton win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–18.7%
1–28.5%
1–08.4%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Cardiff

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)

Southampton

2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2024-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 3-5 Southampton (League Cup)
2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-1 Southampton (Championship)
2023-12-02T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-2 Southampton (Championship)
2021-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-4 Southampton (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-1 Southampton (Premier League)
2018-12-08T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-0 Southampton (Premier League)
2014-04-12T14:07:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-0 Southampton (Premier League)
2013-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-3 Southampton (Premier League)
2012-01-31T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-1 Southampton (Championship)
2011-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-1 Southampton (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	17	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	6	17
6	Wolves	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
8	Southampton	10	6	2	2	11	16
9	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
10	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	3	3	4	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	5	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	-3	9
21	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.