Cardiff City Stadium · Referee John Busby · Analysis updated 18:42 UTC
Cardiff vs Watford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.96 for Watford, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Cardiff the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cardiff win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cardiff home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Watford away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 48.6% vs market 38.0%, edge +10.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 48.6% | 2.06 | +10.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.1% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.7% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.9% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.4% | 20.0% | 5.00 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 51.4% | 1.95 | -10.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cardiff
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 0-2 (L)
Watford
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-14T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-1 Watford (Championship)
- 2024-12-29T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-1 Watford (Championship)
- 2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-0 Watford (Championship)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-1 Watford (Championship)
- 2023-04-19T18:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 3-1 Watford (Championship)
- 2022-11-02T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-2 Watford (Championship)
- 2021-03-13T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-2 Watford (Championship)
- 2020-12-05T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-0 Watford (Championship)
- 2019-02-22T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-5 Watford (Premier League)
- 2018-12-15T15:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-3 Watford (Premier League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cardiff win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.