Cardiff vs West Brom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.13 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Cardiff the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cardiff home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
West Brom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Cardiff win37%

Draw28%

West Brom win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–011.8%
0–111.3%
0–010.0%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Cardiff

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)

West Brom

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-0 West Brom (Championship)
2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-0 West Brom (Championship)
2024-02-13T20:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-2 West Brom (Championship)
2023-11-28T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-1 West Brom (Championship)
2023-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-1 West Brom (Championship)
2022-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-0 West Brom (Championship)
2022-01-02T14:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 1-1 West Brom (Championship)
2021-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 0-4 West Brom (Championship)
2020-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-1 West Brom (Championship)
2019-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Cardiff 2-4 West Brom (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.