· Analysis updated 01:28 UTC
Carina Gubin vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Carina Gubin and 1.48 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Karkonosze Jelenia Góra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carina Gubin home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Carina Gubin
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-3 (L)
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 1-1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2026-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 2-3 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 1-2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 3-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 1-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 1-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 2-2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-05-07T15:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 2-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 3-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.