· Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Carina Gubin vs Sparta Katowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Carina Gubin and 1.98 for Sparta Katowice, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Sparta Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Katowice win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carina Gubin home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Katowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Carina Gubin and 1.98 for Sparta Katowice, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.4%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.43 | 63.2% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +2.7 |
| Match result | Home | 5.15 | 17.3% | 17.9% | 5.59 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 78.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.13 | 43.0% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.97 | 46.2% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.47 | 60.7% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.27 | 39.3% | 39.2% | 2.55 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.69 | 53.8% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 82.5% | 82.2% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.61 | 57.0% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.05 | 22.0% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.46 | 36.8% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -2.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Carina Gubin
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-3 (L)
Sparta Katowice
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ROW Rybnik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Katowice win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.