· Analysis updated 04:30 UTC
Carina Gubin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Carina Gubin and 1.86 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Zaglebie Sosnowiec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carina Gubin home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 23% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Carina Gubin and 1.86 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.48 | 62.5% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +2.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.22 | 41.7% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 76.9% | 77.4% | 1.29 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.71 | 53.9% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 23.0% | 23.2% | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.61 | 57.4% | 57.4% | 1.74 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.17 | 42.6% | 42.6% | 2.35 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 76.9% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 22.6% | 4.42 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.00 | 46.2% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.59 | 58.3% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.47 | 37.5% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Carina Gubin
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-3 (L)
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Carina Gubin 0-4 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zaglebie Sosnowiec win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.