· Analysis updated 02:40 UTC
Cariri vs Guarani De Juazeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cariri and 0.85 for Guarani De Juazeiro, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Cariri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cariri win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cariri home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guarani De Juazeiro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Cariri
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbalha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Crato · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani De Juazeiro · 0-1 (L)
Guarani De Juazeiro
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbalha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crato · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariri · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · Cariri 0-1 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2026-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · Cariri 0-0 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2024-04-11T23:00:00.000Z · Cariri 1-1 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2024-04-07T19:00:00.000Z · Cariri 0-0 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2024-02-24T19:00:00.000Z · Cariri 1-1 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2022-05-16T22:00:00.000Z · Cariri 2-0 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cariri win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.