Carlisle vs Southend Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.88 for Southend, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Carlisle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Carlisle home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Southend away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carlisle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Carlisle and 1.88 for Southend, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Carlisle win41%

Draw21%

Southend win38%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–17.9%
2–17.8%
1–27.4%
2–27.3%
3–15.1%

Recent form

Carlisle

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forest Green · 1-1 (D)

Southend

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston United · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	21	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	9	1	3	12	28
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	7	4	2	17	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	9	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	6	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	-4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	6	2	5	7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	5	5	3	3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	5	3	5	2	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	5	3	5	-4	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	3	17
15	Woking	13	4	3	6	0	15
16	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	-3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	-6	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	-9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	-7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	-7	12
21	Boston United	13	3	3	7	-8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	-6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	-22	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.