Carlton Town vs Basford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Carlton Town and 1.17 for Basford United, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Carlton Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Carlton Town win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Carlton Town home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Basford United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carlton Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Carlton Town and 1.17 for Basford United, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Carlton Town win58%

Draw21%

Basford United win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.4%
2–08.4%
1–08.1%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Carlton Town

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shepshed Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Matlock Town · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry Sphinx · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Coldfield Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bourne Town · 2-1 (W)

Basford United

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedworth United · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Northern Midlands table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Anstey Nomads	42	28	8	6	45	92
2	Carlton Town	42	28	6	8	35	90
3	Basford United	42	19	12	11	7	69
4	Belper Town	42	19	11	12	15	68
5	Racing Club Warwick	42	18	11	13	6	65
6	Coleshill Town	42	18	10	14	2	64
7	Shepshed Dynamo	42	18	9	15	8	63
8	Lichfield City	42	17	9	16	-8	60
9	Wellingborough Town	42	15	13	14	16	58
10	Long Eaton United	42	16	10	16	4	58
11	Sutton Coldfield Town	42	16	9	17	-1	57
12	AFC Rushden & Diamonds	42	14	13	15	-5	55
13	Corby Town	42	15	10	17	-11	55
14	Boldmere St. Michaels	42	16	6	20	-17	54
15	Mickleover Sports	42	14	11	17	-7	53
16	Rugby Borough	42	13	13	16	3	52
17	Loughborough University	42	13	13	16	1	52
18	Bedworth United	42	13	11	18	-6	50
19	Bourne Town	42	12	7	23	-16	43
20	St Neots Town	42	11	10	21	-18	43
21	Coventry Sphinx	42	11	8	23	-18	41
22	Rugby Town	42	9	8	25	-35	35

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Carlton Town win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.