Truist Point · Analysis updated 06:14 UTC
Carolina Core vs New England II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Carolina Core and 2.13 for New England II, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives New England II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.5% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carolina Core home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New England II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New England II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 20% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Carolina Core and 2.13 for New England II, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–35.2%
Recent form
Carolina Core
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattanooga · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-3 (L)
New England II
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Connecticut FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T23:30:00.000Z · Carolina Core 2-2 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-08-02T23:30:00.000Z · Carolina Core 1-0 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · Carolina Core 2-1 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · Carolina Core 1-2 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.