· Analysis updated 16:13 UTC
Carpati Covasna vs Olimpic Zărneşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Carpati Covasna and 2.80 for Olimpic Zărneşti, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Olimpic Zărneşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Olimpic Zărneşti win
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpic Zărneşti away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpic Zărneşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 13% / 16% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Carpati Covasna and 2.80 for Olimpic Zărneşti, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–27.4%
- 0–36.9%
- 1–16.2%
Recent form
Carpati Covasna
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenii de Munte · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi II · 0-4 (L)
Olimpic Zărneşti
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenii de Munte · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Baicoi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Sibiu · 2-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Săcele | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Valenii de Munte | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 11 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 3 |
| 12 | Carpati Covasna | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpic Zărneşti win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.