· Analysis updated 21:45 UTC
Carpati Covasna vs Sepsi II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Carpati Covasna and 2.75 for Sepsi II, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Sepsi II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sepsi II win
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sepsi II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sepsi II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 13% / 16% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Carpati Covasna and 2.75 for Sepsi II, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–37.2%
- 1–16.4%
Recent form
Carpati Covasna
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenii de Munte · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi II · 0-4 (L)
Sepsi II
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baicoi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Sibiu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kids Tâmpa Braşov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Săcele · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Săcele | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Valenii de Munte | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 11 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 3 |
| 12 | Carpati Covasna | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sepsi II win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.