Stadio dei Marmi · Referee Federico La Penna · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Carrarese vs Modena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.58 for Modena, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Modena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Modena win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carrarese home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Modena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Modena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 15% / 25% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Carrarese and 1.58 for Modena, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.5%
- 0–213.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Carrarese
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Catanzaro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mantova · 1-2 (L)
Modena
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Modena win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.