Taylors Avenue · Referee M. McKenna · Analysis updated 06:00 UTC
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.73 for Crusaders FC, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Crusaders FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carrick Rangers home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crusaders FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crusaders FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.73 for Crusaders FC, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Carrick Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
Crusaders FC
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Linfield · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Linfield | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Larne | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Cliftonville FC | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Portadown | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Bangor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.