Taylors Avenue · Referee N. Devlin · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Carrick Rangers vs Larne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.69 for Larne, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Larne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Larne win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carrick Rangers home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Larne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Larne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.69 for Larne, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Carrick Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
Larne
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Glentoran · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | Linfield | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 3 | Larne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Crusaders FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 | Carrick Rangers | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Cliftonville FC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Bangor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Portadown | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Larne win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.