Carrick Rangers vs Linfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.75 for Linfield, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Linfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Linfield win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Carrick Rangers home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Linfield away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Carrick Rangers win16%

Draw23%

Linfield win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–114.0%
0–212.3%
1–110.9%
1–29.5%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Carrick Rangers

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)

Linfield

2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Coleraine FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Portadown · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 0-1 Linfield (Premiership)
2026-03-20T19:45:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 2-0 Linfield (Premiership)
2026-01-13T19:45:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 0-0 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 1-3 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-01-11T15:00:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 0-3 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-11-03T12:30:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 1-3 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 0-1 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-04-02T18:45:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 2-3 Linfield (Premiership)
2023-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 1-2 Linfield (Premiership)
2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Carrick Rangers 3-3 Linfield (Premiership)

Premiership table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coleraine FC	13	11	1	1	19	34
2	Linfield	13	10	2	1	10	32
3	Larne	10	7	1	2	11	22
4	Glentoran	12	6	2	4	6	20
5	Carrick Rangers	13	5	3	5	2	18
6	Ballymena United	11	4	3	4	2	15
7	Cliftonville FC	13	5	0	8	0	15
8	Crusaders FC	13	5	0	8	-12	15
9	Dungannon Swifts	12	4	2	6	-5	14
10	Limavady United	12	4	1	7	-6	13
11	Portadown	13	2	2	9	-12	8
12	Bangor	13	1	3	9	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Linfield win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.