Loughview Leisure Arena · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Carrick Rangers vs Newry City AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.49 for Newry City AFC, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Carrick Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Carrick Rangers win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carrick Rangers home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Newry City AFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carrick Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.49 for Newry City AFC, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Carrick Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
Newry City AFC
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annagh United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Carrick Rangers win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.