· Analysis updated 20:50 UTC
Carroi vs FC Santa Coloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Carroi and 3.10 for FC Santa Coloma, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives FC Santa Coloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Santa Coloma win
84.1% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 3.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carroi home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Santa Coloma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Santa Coloma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 5% / 11% / 84% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Carroi and 3.10 for FC Santa Coloma, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
16%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–311.1%
- 0–210.7%
- 0–48.6%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Carroi
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranger's · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-3 (L)
FC Santa Coloma
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esperança d'Andorra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa de Portugal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Escaldes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Ordino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Ranger's | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Santa Coloma win, at 84.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.