Cartagena LU II vs Algar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Cartagena LU II and 1.28 for Algar, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Cartagena LU II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cartagena LU II win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cartagena LU II home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Algar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cartagena LU II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Cartagena LU II and 1.28 for Algar, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cartagena LU II win52%

Draw22%

Algar win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.6%
1–07.9%
2–07.5%
1–26.5%

Recent form

Cartagena LU II

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bullas Deportivo · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Algar · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Los Garres · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UCAM Murcia II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 0-0 (D)

Algar

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Javier · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Cartagena LU II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Balsicas Atlético · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Santomera · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Bullas Deportivo · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	San Javier	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	3	2	2	7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Águilas II	7	2	5	0	3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Los Garres	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Algar	7	2	0	5	-9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cartagena LU II win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.