Campo de Fútbol El Ansar · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Cartes vs Vimenor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cartes and 1.26 for Vimenor, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Cartes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cartes home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vimenor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cartes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Cartes and 1.26 for Vimenor, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Cartes
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Noja · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Cayón · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Montañas Pas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 1-3 (L)
Vimenor
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Velarde · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sámano · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Laredo | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Cayón | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.