· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Casa Sport vs Wally Daan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Casa Sport and 1.12 for Wally Daan, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Wally Daan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wally Daan win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wally Daan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wally Daan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 22% / 32% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Casa Sport and 1.12 for Wally Daan, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 33%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.6%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–210.4%
Recent form
Casa Sport
Wally Daan
- 2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade de Mbour · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Linguère · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorée · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Guédiawaye · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wally Daan win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.