Stadio Giuseppe Capozza · Referee G. Vailati · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Casarano vs SS Monopoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Casarano and 1.08 for SS Monopoli, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Casarano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Casarano win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casarano home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SS Monopoli away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casarano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Casarano and 1.08 for SS Monopoli, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Casarano
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Audace Cerignola · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Giugliano · 4-3 (W)
SS Monopoli
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Scafatese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Foggia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Potenza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | Bari | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Scafatese | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Casertana | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Catania | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Cavese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | SS Monopoli | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inter U23 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | AZ Picerno | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Team Altamura | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 | Barletta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Foggia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Savoia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Casarano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 20 | Crotone | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Casarano win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.