Stadio Alberto Pinto · Analysis updated 10:01 UTC
Casertana vs Atalanta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Casertana and 0.95 for Atalanta II, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Casertana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Casertana win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atalanta II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casertana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Casertana and 0.95 for Atalanta II, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Casertana
Atalanta II
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ravenna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | Salernitana | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Casarano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Union Brescia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Potenza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Lecco | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Pianese | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Cittadella | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Casertana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Catania | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Pineto | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Giana Erminio | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Renate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Crotone | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Ravenna | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Vis Pesaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Audace Cerignola | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Ternana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Alcione | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Lumezzane | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Juventus U23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Campobasso FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Gubbio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Trento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atalanta II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | SS Monopoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Cosenza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Casertana win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.