Stadio Alberto Pinto · Analysis updated 20:00 UTC
Casertana vs Crotone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Casertana and 1.08 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Casertana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crotone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casertana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Casertana and 1.08 for Crotone, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Casertana
Crotone
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Audace Cerignola · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SS Monopoli · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | Salernitana | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Casarano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Union Brescia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Potenza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Lecco | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Pianese | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Cittadella | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Casertana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Catania | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Pineto | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Giana Erminio | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Renate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Crotone | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Ravenna | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Vis Pesaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Audace Cerignola | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Ternana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Alcione | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Lumezzane | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Juventus U23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Campobasso FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Gubbio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Trento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atalanta II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | SS Monopoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Cosenza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.