· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Cashmere Technical vs Ferrymead Bays Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Cashmere Technical and 1.10 for Ferrymead Bays, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Cashmere Technical the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cashmere Technical win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cashmere Technical home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferrymead Bays away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cashmere Technical to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Cashmere Technical and 1.10 for Ferrymead Bays, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Cashmere Technical
- 2026-09-05T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Fencibles United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Napier City Rovers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunedin City Royals · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-02-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferrymead Bays · 2-1 (W)
Ferrymead Bays
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Nomads United · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-23T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Wanaka · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cashmere Technical win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.