Stadion Pod Hradkem · Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
Čáslav vs Chrudim II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Čáslav and 1.87 for Chrudim II, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Čáslav the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Čáslav win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Čáslav home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chrudim II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Čáslav
- 2026-10-24T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Mladá Boleslav II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Jablonec II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Zápy · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Velké Hamry · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 2-0 (W)
Chrudim II
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Přepeře · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trutnov · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ústí nad Orlicí · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · Čáslav 1-2 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2025-11-15T09:15:00.000Z · Čáslav 4-2 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2024-03-10T13:30:00.000Z · Čáslav 1-3 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2023-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · Čáslav 2-3 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2023-07-16T15:00:00.000Z · Čáslav 3-3 Chrudim II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-09T08:15:00.000Z · Čáslav 1-5 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2022-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · Čáslav 3-3 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
4. liga - Divizie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 27 |
| 3 | Kosmonosy | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 4 | Trutnov | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Turnov | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Kolín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Dvůr Králové | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Hlinsko | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Vykan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 2 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -35 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Čáslav win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.