Castanet vs Alberes Argelès Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Castanet and 0.85 for Alberes Argelès, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Castanet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Castanet win

49.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alberes Argelès away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castanet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Castanet and 0.85 for Alberes Argelès, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Match result (1X2)

Castanet win49%

Draw28%

Alberes Argelès win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.9%
1–112.7%
0–010.9%
2–010.2%
0–19.3%

Recent form

Castanet

Alberes Argelès

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SAG Cestas · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agde · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Colomiers · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Onet-le-Château · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pau II · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tarbes	26	14	8	4	26	47
2	Canet Roussillon	26	12	9	5	15	45
3	Colomiers	26	13	6	7	5	43
4	Onet-le-Château	26	11	6	9	0	39
5	Pau II	26	10	7	9	6	37
6	Anglet Genets	26	12	7	7	13	37
7	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	26	9	9	8	2	36
8	Toulouse II	26	9	6	11	4	33
9	Castanet	26	8	8	10	-5	32
10	Blagnac	26	8	8	10	1	29
11	Lège-Cap-Ferret	26	6	10	10	-15	28
12	SAG Cestas	26	6	10	10	-16	28
13	Agde	26	6	6	14	-20	24
14	Alberes Argelès	26	5	6	15	-16	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castanet win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.