Complexe Sportif de Lautard · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Castanet vs Anglet Genets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Castanet and 1.23 for Anglet Genets, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Castanet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anglet Genets away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castanet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Castanet and 1.23 for Anglet Genets, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Castanet
Anglet Genets
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lège-Cap-Ferret · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SAG Cestas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Agde · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarbes | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 47 |
| 2 | Canet Roussillon | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 45 |
| 3 | Colomiers | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | Onet-le-Château | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 39 |
| 5 | Pau II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Anglet Genets | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 7 | Bassin d'Arcachon Sud | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 36 |
| 8 | Toulouse II | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Castanet | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Blagnac | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29 |
| 11 | Lège-Cap-Ferret | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 28 |
| 12 | SAG Cestas | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -16 | 28 |
| 13 | Agde | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Alberes Argelès | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -16 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.