Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi · Analysis updated 16:07 UTC
Castellanzese vs Milan II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Castellanzese and 1.56 for Milan II, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Castellanzese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Castellanzese home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Milan II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellanzese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Castellanzese and 1.56 for Milan II, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Castellanzese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solbiatese · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltrepò · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 0-1 (L)
Milan II
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rovato Vertovese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Valle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brusaporto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Palazzolo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Chievo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Pro Palazzolo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Milan II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Brusaporto | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Virtus Verona | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Calepina | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Scanzorosciate | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Club Milano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Pavonese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.