Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi · Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Castellanzese vs Vogherese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Castellanzese and 0.95 for Vogherese, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Castellanzese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Castellanzese win
79.8% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Castellanzese home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vogherese away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellanzese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Castellanzese and 0.95 for Vogherese, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–06.7%
Recent form
Castellanzese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solbiatese · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltrepò · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 0-1 (L)
Vogherese
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milan II · 1-10 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs USD Casatese · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chievo · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Chievo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Piacenza | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Calepina | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Virtus Verona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Tritium | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Castellanzese win, at 79.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.