Castellón II vs SD Logroñés Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Castellón II and 1.52 for SD Logroñés, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives SD Logroñés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SD Logroñés win

46.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Castellón II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SD Logroñés away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SD Logroñés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Castellón II and 1.52 for SD Logroñés, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Castellón II win28%

Draw26%

SD Logroñés win47%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–110.8%
1–29.2%
0–28.2%
1–08.0%

Recent form

Castellón II

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 1-2 (L)

SD Logroñés

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SD Logroñés win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.