Castellón vs Sporting Gijon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Castellón and 0.59 for Sporting Gijon, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Castellón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Castellón win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.36 – 0.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Castellón home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Gijon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Castellón win56%

Draw28%

Sporting Gijon win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.4%
0–014.2%
2–013.2%
1–111.4%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Castellón

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-1 (W)

Sporting Gijon

2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Oviedo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Girona · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-15T20:00:00.000Z · Castellón 1-4 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
2025-10-05T14:15:00.000Z · Castellón 3-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
2025-05-05T18:30:00.000Z · Castellón 4-3 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
2024-10-14T18:30:00.000Z · Castellón 1-2 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
2021-01-24T17:15:00.000Z · Castellón 2-0 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
2020-11-02T17:15:00.000Z · Castellón 0-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	9	7	0	2	11	21
2	Eibar	9	7	0	2	9	21
3	Castellón	9	6	2	1	11	20
4	Mallorca	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Sabadell	9	4	4	1	3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	5	1	3	1	16
7	Girona	9	4	3	2	6	15
8	Burgos	9	4	2	3	2	14
9	Oviedo	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Granada CF	9	4	2	3	1	14
11	Valladolid	9	3	3	3	2	12
12	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Celta de Vigo II	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Eldense	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	-3	11
16	Leganes	9	3	2	4	-8	11
17	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	-2	10
18	Cordoba	9	3	0	6	-6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Cadiz	9	1	4	4	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	1	2	6	-12	5
22	Albacete	9	0	1	8	-15	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castellón win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.