Castellonense vs Almeria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Castellonense and 1.22 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Castellonense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Castellonense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almeria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellonense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Castellonense and 1.22 for Almeria, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Castellonense win41%

Draw26%

Almeria win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.2%
0–19.0%
2–18.7%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Castellonense

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Cieza · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)

Almeria

2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa del Rey table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pinatar	2	2	0	0	11	6
2	Prat	2	2	0	0	9	6
3	Anaitasuna	2	2	0	0	8	6
4	Lebrijana	2	2	0	0	6	6
5	Atletico Calatayud	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Alcazar	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Hortaleza	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Ribadesella CF	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Auriense	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	CD San Jose	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maracena	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Tavernes	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Güímar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Noja	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Talayuela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Baztán	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Ceuta 6 de Junio	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Tedeón	2	0	0	2	-8	0
19	San Rafael	2	0	0	2	-9	0
20	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.