Castellonense vs Ontinyent 1931 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Castellonense and 0.73 for Ontinyent 1931, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Castellonense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Castellonense win

52.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Castellonense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ontinyent 1931 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellonense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Castellonense and 0.73 for Ontinyent 1931, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Castellonense win52%

Draw28%

Ontinyent 1931 win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.8%
0–012.2%
1–112.2%
2–011.6%
0–18.9%

Recent form

Castellonense

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Cieza · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)

Ontinyent 1931

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buñol · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Levante II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villarreal III	7	6	0	1	7	18
2	Levante II	8	5	2	1	11	17
3	Vall de Uxó	7	4	3	0	7	15
4	Hércules II	7	3	2	2	2	11
5	Torrent	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Crevillente	7	2	4	1	1	10
7	Eldense B	8	2	4	2	1	10
8	Roda	7	2	3	2	1	9
9	Acero	7	1	5	1	1	8
10	Saguntino	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Atzeneta	7	1	5	1	0	8
12	Soneja	7	2	1	4	-5	7
13	SC Torrevieja	7	2	1	4	-6	7
14	Ontinyent 1931	6	2	0	4	-1	6
15	Jove Español	7	1	3	3	-6	6
16	Buñol	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Torrellano	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Utiel	6	0	3	3	-6	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castellonense win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.