Castellonense vs Ucam Murcia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Castellonense and 1.33 for Ucam Murcia, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Castellonense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Castellonense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ucam Murcia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellonense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Castellonense and 1.33 for Ucam Murcia, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Castellonense win39%

Draw26%

Ucam Murcia win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.2%
0–18.8%
2–18.5%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Castellonense

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Cieza · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)

Ucam Murcia

2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	7	5	0	2	9	15
2	Castellonense	7	5	0	2	6	15
3	Deportiva Minera	7	4	2	1	4	14
4	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
5	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
6	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
7	Orihuela	8	3	2	3	-5	11
8	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Yeclano	8	2	4	2	-1	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	2	3	2	1	9
11	Intercity	7	2	3	2	-2	9
12	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	1	4	2	-3	7
14	Poblense	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Valencia II	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Peña Deportiva	7	1	1	5	-4	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.