· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Castro Daire vs Estrela Calheta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Castro Daire and 1.10 for Estrela Calheta, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Castro Daire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Castro Daire home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela Calheta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castro Daire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Castro Daire and 1.10 for Estrela Calheta, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Castro Daire
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgueiros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 1-0 (W)
Estrela Calheta
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ovarense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.