Complexo Desportivo Castro Daire · Referee Rúben Ribeiro · Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Castro Daire vs Resende Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Castro Daire and 1.30 for Resende, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Castro Daire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Castro Daire home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castro Daire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Castro Daire and 1.30 for Resende, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Castro Daire
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgueiros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 1-0 (W)
Resende
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.