Campo Riomar · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Castro vs Gimnástica Torrelavega Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Castro and 1.48 for Gimnástica Torrelavega, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Gimnástica Torrelavega the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnástica Torrelavega win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Castro home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnástica Torrelavega away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Castro
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tropezón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Revilla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Solares · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 0-0 (D)
Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · Castro 2-3 Gimnástica Torrelavega (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Castro 0-4 Gimnástica Torrelavega (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2022-04-23T15:00:00.000Z · Castro 0-8 Gimnástica Torrelavega (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2021-12-19T16:00:00.000Z · Castro 2-3 Gimnástica Torrelavega (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2021-02-14T16:00:00.000Z · Castro 1-0 Gimnástica Torrelavega (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2020-11-14T16:00:00.000Z · Castro 0-0 Gimnástica Torrelavega (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Bezana | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Laredo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 4 | Sámano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 5 | Revilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Cayón | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Torina | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Vimenor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Selaya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineros | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Solares | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Escobedo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Atlético Albericia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Velarde | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Barquereño | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnástica Torrelavega win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.