· Analysis updated 18:27 UTC
Castuera vs Atlético Pueblonuevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for Castuera and 0.82 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Castuera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Castuera win
81.1% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Castuera home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Pueblonuevo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castuera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for Castuera and 0.82 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–07.4%
Recent form
Castuera
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jerez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla Calzada · 0-2 (L)
Atlético Pueblonuevo
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Azuaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gévora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Calamonte · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla Calzada · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraíz · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Montijo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gévora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Quintana | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Jaraíz | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Castuera win, at 81.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.