Catania vs Cosenza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Catania and 0.83 for Cosenza, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Catania the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Catania win

73.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Catania home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cosenza away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Catania win73%

Draw16%

Cosenza win11%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

2–011.2%
2–19.3%
3–09.3%
1–09.1%
3–17.7%

Recent form

Catania

2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Casertana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Picerno · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Scafatese · 1-2 (L)

Cosenza

2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Foggia · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bari · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Scafatese · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavese · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-25T13:30:00.000Z · Catania 2-0 Cosenza (Serie C - Girone C)
2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Catania 1-4 Cosenza (Serie C - Girone C)
2018-02-11T15:30:00.000Z · Catania 2-2 Cosenza (Serie C)
2017-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · Catania 1-0 Cosenza (Serie C)
2017-04-15T16:30:00.000Z · Catania 0-2 Cosenza (Serie C)
2016-12-03T15:30:00.000Z · Catania 2-1 Cosenza (Serie C)

Serie C - Girone C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Potenza	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	Bari	11	6	3	2	7	21
3	Sorrento	11	6	2	3	4	20
4	Audace Cerignola	10	5	2	3	9	17
5	Scafatese	10	4	5	1	3	17
6	Casertana	11	4	5	2	2	17
7	Catania	10	5	1	4	6	16
8	Cavese	10	4	3	3	3	15
9	SS Monopoli	10	4	3	3	2	15
10	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	2	14
11	Inter U23	10	4	2	4	1	14
12	AZ Picerno	10	4	0	6	-1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	3	3	5	-7	12
14	Barletta	11	2	5	4	-3	11
15	Foggia	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Savoia	11	2	5	4	-5	11
17	Casarano	10	3	2	5	-6	11
18	Giugliano	10	3	1	6	-8	10
19	Cosenza	11	1	3	7	-14	6
20	Crotone	10	1	4	5	-5	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Catania win, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.