Stadio Angelo Massimino · Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Catania vs Giugliano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Catania and 1.65 for Giugliano, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Catania the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Catania win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Catania home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Giugliano away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Catania to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 17% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Catania and 1.65 for Giugliano, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Catania
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Casertana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Picerno · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Scafatese · 1-2 (L)
Giugliano
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Audace Cerignola · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Bari | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Catania | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Casertana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Cavese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | SS Monopoli | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Scafatese | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inter U23 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | AZ Picerno | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Barletta | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Foggia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Casarano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Savoia | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
| 20 | Crotone | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Catania win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.