· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Caudal vs Atlético Central Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Caudal and 1.23 for Atlético Central, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Atlético Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caudal home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Central away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Central to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Caudal and 1.23 for Atlético Central, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Caudal
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijón II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs L'Entregu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Covadonga · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceares · 2-1 (W)
Atlético Central
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marbella · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Caudal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peña Deportiva | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Atlético Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Badajoz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Real Murcia II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | La Nucía | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Compostela | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tamaraceite | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Albacete II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnedo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Tropezón | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Badalona II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Guijuelo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Leioa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Cuarte | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Trival Valderas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Caudal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Arenas Armilla | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.